Player Props Betting Guide
- All of our picks come from sportsbooks Bovada, BetOnline or PropBuilder although they can be found on most other sites including most of the PPH (pay-per-head) sites/skins. We make a strong effort to choose common bets for top players as much as possible so that everyone will be able to bet them no matter which sites you use.
- A notification email will be sent to you as soon as picks are posted. Make sure to have notifications on. We’ve found that gmail is the fastest email provider (usually within 1 minute of posting). We recommend downloading their app so you can get notifications to your phone immediately.
- All picks are “To Win” 1 unit unless noted otherwise. Starting from the 2018-19 season, we began adding multi-unit plays based on confidence levels (1-3 unit scale).
- We recommend that 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll.
What If My Line Is Different Than Your Pick?
The prop market often varies from book to book and can also move frequently throughout the day. Even though we try to select the best lines that are also the most frequently available, you will not always be able to get the same exact lines. Sometimes the line on your bookie(s) will be better, sometimes worse.
In general, we recommend still betting anything that is less than 5% worse than our line.
For example, if our pick is Lebron James Under 20 Points and your bookie has a line of 19 Points, we still recommend betting it (5% of 20 points = 1 point, which matches up with the line difference). However we would recommend passing on anything below 19.
The only time we would recommend betting on a pick that is more than 5% worse is on small lines in which the difference will result in a tie and not a loss.
For example, if our pick is Odell Beckham Under 5 Receptions and your bookies line is 4.5 Receptions. That is a key number because it will usually be reflective of that players season averages and that will likely hit more often than any other (kind of like the odds of rolling a 7 in craps is the most probable number you’ll get on any given dice roll). If the player does end up with exactly 5 receptions, then our pick would result in a tie while your bet would lose. That’s no good.
Now lets say our pick was Odell Beckham Under 5.5 Receptions and your bookies line is 5 Receptions. If the player gets exactly 5 receptions like before, this time your bet will result in a tie instead of a loss. No harm done. Your getting a little less value on the bet since your missing the chance of a potential payday if it lands on 5 but more importantly you are protected from the downside of losing on that key number. In both situations, there’s a 10% line difference between our pick and the bookies line but one situation results in a losing bet and the other not.
What If The Juice Is Higher Than Your Pick?
-115 vig/commission (also known as the juice) is the common standard set by most bookies. Given our 60-65% win rate, there is some wiggle room when it comes to the juice amount you can bet and still be profitable.
Here’s the math. The formula is: risk / return = probability. For example, a -115 bet at $115 to win $100 calulates to 115/215=53.48% so you would need to win 53.5% of the time to break even at -115 vig.
Here’s more examples:
-115 = 53.5%
-130 = 56.5%
-145 = 59.2%
-160 = 61.5%
It’s up to you how much juice your willing to risk but even if you were to place bets at a juice higher than -115, you will very likely still be comfortably profitable. On any given day if your getting most bets in at -115, then betting an occasional -130 or -145 isn’t that big of a deal since your avg juice overall on all bets is still gonna be below -130.
***We DO NOT recommend betting picks if the line AND the juice are both worse than what we posted since the edge is most likely completely gone.
Best Player Props Sportsbooks
Sportsbookreviews.com has a helpful rating guide for all offshore bookies. My general rule is that any site with a B rating or higher is usually trustable but it’s always a good idea to do your own research as well.