Player Props Betting Guide
- All of our picks come from sportsbooks: Bovada, 5Dimes, BetOnline, MyBookie, Bet365, Pinnacle and PropBuilder/BetBuilder although they can be found on most other sites including most of the PPH sites/skins such as 1BetVegas, YoPig, etc. We make a strong effort to choose common bets for top players as much as possible so that they are available on most bookie sites and everyone will be able to bet a majority of our picks.
- We email all picks to you. Make sure to have notifications on.
- All picks are “to win” 1 unit unless noted otherwise. Starting from the 2018-19 season, we began adding multi-unit plays based on confidence levels (1-3 unit scale).
- We recommend that 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll.
What Time Are Picks Released?
These are general estimates, times can vary. Picks are sometimes released earlier if all bookies have posted props and sometimes later depending on injury updates and other factors.
Sunday (Early games): 8-9 am pst
Sunday (Mid/Late games): 11-12 pm pst
Thursday/Monday (Night game): 12 pm pst
Mon-Sun (Normal start): 12-1 pm pst
Sat-Sun (Early start): 9 am pst
What If My Line Is Different Than Your Pick?
We recommend still betting anything that is less than 5% worse than our line.
For example, if our pick is Lebron James Under 20 Points and your bookie has a line of 19 Points, we still recommend betting it (5% of 20 points = 1 point, which matches up with the line difference). However we would recommend passing on anything below 19.
The only time we would recommend betting on a pick that is more than 5% worse is on small lines in which the difference will result in a tie and not a loss.
Say our pick is Odell Beckham Under 5 Receptions and your bookies line is 4.5 Receptions. That number 5 is a key number that will likely hit more often than any other since that’s usually the players average (Kind of like the odds of rolling a 7 in craps is the most probable number you’ll get on any given dice roll). If the player does end up with exactly 5 receptions, then our pick would result in a tie while your bet would lose. That’s not good.
Now lets say our pick was Odell Beckham Under 5.5 Receptions and your bookies line is 5 Receptions. If the player gets exactly 5 receptions like before, this time your bet will result in a tie instead of a loss. No harm done. Your getting a little less value on the bet since your missing the chance of a potential payday if it lands on 5 but more importantly you are protected from the downside of losing on that key number. In both situations, there’s a 10% difference between our pick and the bookies line but one situation results in losing money and the other keeping money.
What If The Juice Is Higher Than Your Pick?
-115 commission (also known as the juice) is the common standard that most bookies set on props but given our 60-65% win rate, there is some wiggle room when it comes to the juice amount you can bet and still be profitable.
Let’s do the math…Say you place 100 total bets. At 65% win accuracy, that’s 65 winners and 35 losers. Divide the number of winning bets by the number of losing bets and that will give us the break even juice amount. 65/35 = 1.85 which equates to -185
To double check the math:
65 wins x $100 = $6,500
35 loss x (-$185) = -$6,475
*At a 65% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -185.
*At a 60% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -150.
*At a 55% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -122.
It’s up to you how much juice your willing to risk but even if you were to place bets at a juice higher than -115, you will very likely still be comfortably profitable. On any given day if your getting most bets in at -115, then betting an occasional -150 isn’t that big of a deal since your avg juice overall on all bets is still gonna be below -130.
***We DO NOT recommend betting picks if the line AND the juice/commission are both worse than what we posted since the edge is most likely completely gone.***
Best Player Props Sportsbooks
- Bovada/Bodog (#1 Favorite)
Sportsbookreviews.com has a helpful rating guide for ranking all offshore bookies. My general rule is that any site with a B rating or higher is usually trustable but it’s always a good idea to do your own research as well.