What if my line is different than yours?
Listed below are some basic guidelines in case you encounter a line different than what we have recommended. Any line within the number listed below is still ok to bet. Remember that the higher the number is on our pick, the more we can be flexible on line we bet. Taking a line that is worst by 1 point on a pick of 10 points (10% of original line) is a lot different than getting a worst line by 1 point on a pick of 30 points (3% of original line).
- Points – Any line within 1 point is ok. However if the pick is >30 pts, then any line within 2 points is fine.
- Rebounds – Any line within 1 rebound.
- Assists – Any line within 0.5 assist.
- Points+Rebound+Assist – Any line within 1 is ok. However if the pick is >30, then any line within 2 is fine.
- Yards – Any line within 5 yards is ok. If the pick is >200 yards, then anything within 10 yards of that is fine.
- Completions – Any line within 1 completion.
- Receptions – Any line within 0.5 receptions.
- TD/Int – Must be exact same line or better, but juice can vary slightly.
What if the juice is more than expected?
-115 commission (also known as the juice) is the most common standard juice bookies set on props but given our 65% win rate, there is some wiggle room when it comes to the juice amount you can bet and still be profitable.
Let’s do the math…Say you place 100 total bets as an example. At 65% win accuracy, that’s 65 winners and 35 losers. Divide the number of winning bets by the number of losing bets and that will give us the break even juice amount. 65/35 = 1.85 which equates to -185
To double check the math:
65 wins x $100 = $6,500
35 loss x (-$185) = -$6,475
*At a 65% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -185.
*At a 60% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -150.
It’s up to you how much juice your willing to take on but even if you were to place bets at a juice higher than -115, you will very likely still be comfortably profitable.
*Almost all of our picks are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. Occasionally we will have 3 or 5 unit max plays.
*1 unit = 2% of your bankroll.
*We highly recommend that you do NOT withdraw winnings immediately. Making a withdrawal request will bring unwanted attention to your account and could potentially get your account limited or cut off. It’s usually better to wait until you’ve been limited/cutoff before making your first withdrawal. The less attention brought to winning accounts, the longer they usually last.