*All our picks come from Bovada, 5Dimes, MyBookie and PropBuilder, although they can be found on many other sites as well.
*All picks are 1 Unit unless noted otherwise. Occasionally we have 3 or 5 unit Max Plays.
*1 unit = 2% of your bankroll.
What if my bookies line is different than your picks?
We recommend still betting anything that is less than 5% worse than our line.
For example, if our pick is ‘NBA Player X’ Under 20 Points and your bookie has a line of 19 Points, we still recommend betting it (5% of 20 points = 1 point, which matches up with the line difference). However anything below 19, we would not recommend betting.
The only time we would recommend betting on a pick that is more than 5% worse is on small lines in which the difference will result in a tie and not a loss.
Let me explain. Say our pick is ‘NFL Player Y’ Under 5 Receptions and your bookies line is 4.5 Receptions. That number 5 is a key number that will likely hit more often than any other since that’s usually the players average (Kind of like the odds of rolling a 7 in craps is the most probable number you’ll get on any given dice roll). If the player does end up with exactly 5 receptions, then our pick would result in a tie while your bet would lose. That’s not good.
Now lets say our pick was ‘NFL Player Y’ Under 5.5 Receptions and your bookies line is 5 Receptions. If the player gets exactly 5 receptions like before, this time your bet will result in a tie instead of a loss. No harm done. Your getting a little less value on the bet since your missing the chance of a potential payday if it lands on 5 but more importantly you are protected from the downside of losing on that key number. In both situations, there’s a 10% difference between our pick and the bookies line but when the players result lands on the key number, one results in losing money and the other keeping money.
What if the juice is more than expected?
-115 commission (also known as the juice) is the most common standard juice bookies set on props but given our 65% win rate, there is some wiggle room when it comes to the juice amount you can bet and still be profitable.
Let’s do the math…Say you place 100 total bets. At 65% win accuracy, that’s 65 winners and 35 losers. Divide the number of winning bets by the number of losing bets and that will give us the break even juice amount. 65/35 = 1.85 which equates to -185
To double check the math:
65 wins x $100 = $6,500
35 loss x (-$185) = -$6,475
*At a 65% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -185.
*At a 60% win rate, you will break even if ALL bets are placed at -150.
It’s up to you how much juice your willing to take on but even if you were to place bets at a juice higher than -115, you will very likely still be comfortably profitable.
***We recommend NOT betting picks if the line on the pick and the juice/commission are both worse than what we posted since the edge is most likely completely gone.***
Good Sportsbooks with Player Props